Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 January 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region 536 (S12W41) has continued to show a slow, gradual decay in spot coverage. Multiple B and C-class flares were produced from this region during the period, the largest was a C7.7/Sf flare that occurred at 10/0513Z. Region 537 (N05E24) was limited to B-class flare production today and did show some decay in penumbral coverage, although the delta magnetic structure remains well intact. Near continuous surging along side the inversion line near the delta configuration was observed throughout much of the day.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. There is a fair chance of an isolated major flare from either of the two remaining spotted active regions visible on the solar disk; Regions 536 and 537.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Elevated conditions were most likely the response to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible due to the continued effects a favorably positioned coronal hole and the associated high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jan 119
  Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        10 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  016/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jan  015/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  015/020-015/025-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm20%35%35%
Major-severe storm10%15%15%

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