Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 528 (N10W78) produced a C1 flare at 1940Z near the west limb. Two small solar filaments lifted off the visible disk during the past twenty-four hours; an eight degree filament disappeared near N23E01 and a ten degree filament disappeared near S21W04.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 528 has the potential for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. An isolated period of unsettled activity was observed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated active periods are possible on 01 January due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
Class M10%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Dec 108
  Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan  100/095/085
  90 Day Mean        30 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Dec  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  010/015-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%25%
Minor storm05%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%40%35%
Minor storm10%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%15%05%

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