Viewing archive of Monday, 29 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 525
(N09, L=292) produced a B8.9 flare at 1354Z on the west limb.
Region 528 (N08W69) continues to decay in area coverage and has
simplified to a beta magnetic configuration. A 24-degree filament
lifted off near S28E53 at 28/2240Z. A faint non-Earth directed CME
was associated with the disappearing filament.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 528 has the potential for C-class
activity and a slight chance of producing M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on 31 December and 01 January due to a small
coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 115 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 110/100/095 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 005/010-010/015-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
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