Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. Region 528 (N10W57) showed some decrease in areal coverage to the spot cluster. This region continues to exhibit weak beta-gamma characteristics. Region 532 (S11W38) was quiescent throughout the period and appears to be in a decay phase. New Region 533 (N16E54) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. There is a very slight chance of an isolated low level M-class flare due to the magnetic complexity of Region 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be experienced late on 31 December due to the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Dec 119
  Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec  115/115/105
  90 Day Mean        28 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  012/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Dec  010/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  008/010-005/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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