Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 528 (N10W57) showed some decrease in areal coverage to the
spot cluster. This region continues to exhibit weak beta-gamma
characteristics. Region 532 (S11W38) was quiescent throughout the
period and appears to be in a decay phase. New Region 533 (N16E54)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. There is a very slight chance of an
isolated low level M-class flare due to the magnetic complexity of
Region 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions may be experienced late on 31 December due to the onset
of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 119 Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 115/115/105 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 008/010-005/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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