Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 December 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. Region 528 (N10W44) underwent little change today and was quiescent throughout the period. No significant activity was reported from the active regions today. No new regions were numbered this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 528 remains capable of producing minor M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Updated SOHO/LASCO imagery depicted a weak partial halo CME that was believed to be from the long duration C5/Sf flare from 25 December. A weak transient was observed passing the ACE spacecraft at approximately 27/0900Z resulting in unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions possible throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Dec 127
  Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        27 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Dec  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  010/012-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
COMMENTS: Observed Pentiction 10.7 cm Est. based on morning reading due to excessive noon value.

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