Viewing archive of Friday, 26 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Region 528 (N10W31) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 26/1928Z
along with multiple lesser C-class flares that were observed
throughout the period. This region underwent little change today.
The beta-gamma magnetic complex remains intact. Region 532 (S11W11)
slightly increased in magnetic complexity and areal spot coverage
today. A minor B-class flare occurred in this region early in the
period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 528 continues to exhibit the
potential for producing low level M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
conditions possible throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 137 Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 26 Dec 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 008/010-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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