Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 December 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class and B-class flares were observed in Regions 525 (N09W34), 528 (N09W04), and 531 (N03W50). Region 528 maintains moderate size with some magnetic complexity as it transits solar disk center; however, activity from this region decreased considerably this period. Region 525 contains some weak mixed polarities, but activity in this region was also quite limited. The remaining active regions were either stable or in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. C-class activity is expected in Region 525 and 528. There is a slight chance for an M-class flare, primarily from Region 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed continues to gradually decline, ending the period below 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Dec 139
  Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec  145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        24 Dec 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Dec  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  005/010-005/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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