Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class flares were observed from Regions 525 (N08W22) and 528 (N09E09). The largest flare of the period was a C6 flare from Region 525 at 23/1024Z. This region showed little change over the past 24 hours and continues to exhibit some minor mixing of polarity. Region 528 is maintaining its steady growth phase and now exceeds 500 millionths of white light areal coverage in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a chance for an M-class flare from Regions 525 and 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The coronal hole high speed stream that began on 21 December, has now rotated out of a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed declined from a maximum of near 650 km/s on 22 December, to approximately 500 km/s at the end of this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
Class M 20%25%25%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Dec 142
  Predicted    24 Dec-26 Dec  145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        23 Dec 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  018/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Dec  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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