Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares
were observed in Regions 525 (N09E05) and 528 (N09E37). Both regions
continue in a slow growth phase with some weak mixed polarities
noted. New Region 530 (S20E64) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from
Regions 525 and 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. This disturbance is
due to elevated solar wind from an elongated transequatorial coronal
hole which rotated into a geoeffective position on 20 December.
Solar wind speed now exceeds 600 km/s, but predominantly northward
IMF Bz is thwarting a more significant response in the geomagnetic
field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels through 22
December. The coronal hole high speed solar wind flow in progress
now is expected to subside by 23 December. Quiet to unsettled
condition are likely on 23-24 December.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 133 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 009/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 015/018-010/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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