Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares were observed in Regions 525 (N09E05) and 528 (N09E37). Both regions continue in a slow growth phase with some weak mixed polarities noted. New Region 530 (S20E64) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Regions 525 and 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. This disturbance is due to elevated solar wind from an elongated transequatorial coronal hole which rotated into a geoeffective position on 20 December. Solar wind speed now exceeds 600 km/s, but predominantly northward IMF Bz is thwarting a more significant response in the geomagnetic field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels through 22 December. The coronal hole high speed solar wind flow in progress now is expected to subside by 23 December. Quiet to unsettled condition are likely on 23-24 December.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Dec 133
  Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec  140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        21 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  009/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Dec  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  015/018-010/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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