Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 525 (N09E17) produced several C-class flares, including a C2.6/Sf at 20/0016Z. New Region 529 (SN47) at N09W18 was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 525 and 528 (N09E49) are expected to produce C-class flares, and are capable of producing isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels. Increased solar wind speed was observed by the ACE spacecraft at 20/0000Z. Wind speed increased from just over 300 km/s to 500 km/s as of this writing, due most likely to a coronal hole moving into geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit began the period at high levels, but has been cycling above and below the high threshold level since the arrival of increased solar wind speed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with isolated minor storm conditions on 21-22 December due to persistent effects from the geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Dec 130
  Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  130/135/140
  90 Day Mean        20 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  001/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Dec  012/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  015/020-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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