Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 525 (N09E17)
produced several C-class flares, including a C2.6/Sf at 20/0016Z.
New Region 529 (SN47) at N09W18 was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 525 and 528 (N09E49) are expected to produce
C-class flares, and are capable of producing isolated M-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels.
Increased solar wind speed was observed by the ACE spacecraft at
20/0000Z. Wind speed increased from just over 300 km/s to 500 km/s
as of this writing, due most likely to a coronal hole moving into
geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit began the period at high levels, but has been
cycling above and below the high threshold level since the arrival
of increased solar wind speed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with isolated minor storm conditions
on 21-22 December due to persistent effects from the geoeffective
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 130 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 001/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 012/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 015/020-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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