Viewing archive of Friday, 19 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Regions 525 (N10E31) and
528 (N09E62) produced several C-class events during the period,
including a C9.3/Sf at 19/0818Z from Region 528. No new regions
were numbered today, but SOHO/EIT imagery indicates that more active
regions lie just beyond the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 525
and 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through the period. Isolated
chance of active to minor storm conditions are possible 20-21
December, as the geomagnetic field comes under the influence of high
speed solar wind from a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 123 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 08% |
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