Viewing archive of Friday, 19 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Regions 525 (N10E31) and 528 (N09E62) produced several C-class events during the period, including a C9.3/Sf at 19/0818Z from Region 528. No new regions were numbered today, but SOHO/EIT imagery indicates that more active regions lie just beyond the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 525 and 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through the period. Isolated chance of active to minor storm conditions are possible 20-21 December, as the geomagnetic field comes under the influence of high speed solar wind from a coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Dec 123
  Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  135/135/140
  90 Day Mean        19 Dec 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  002/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%45%40%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%08%

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