Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 525 (N09E56) produced a C8.6/Sf at 0313Z. Two new regions were numbered today; Region 526 (N12W54) and Region 527 (S15W41).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Active regions observed on EIT imagery just beyond the east limb may increase the level of solar activity beginning 20 December.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed observed at ACE continued a gradual decline to below 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit continued at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. A coronal hole rotating into geoeffective position on 19 December may produce elevated solar wind speed, resulting in isolated active to minor storm conditions in the geomagnetic field on 19-20 December.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
Class M 05%05%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Dec 118
  Predicted    18 Dec-20 Dec  125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        17 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Dec  011/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  010/012-015/018-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%45%45%
Minor storm 10%20%20%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%40%
Minor storm 15%25%25%
Major-severe storm 05%10%10%

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