Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through 19 Dec.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 17 - 18 Dec. By 19 Dec, a high-speed stream should begin to impact the Earth's magnetic field, elevating the geomagnetic field to active to minor storm levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Dec 106
  Predicted    17 Dec-19 Dec  110/110/115
  90 Day Mean        16 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  018/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  012/013
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  012/012-010/012-018/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm 10%10%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm 15%15%25%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%

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