Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels. Only three regions are on the solar disk. None have significant potential for solar activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A coronal hole is progressing beyond geoeffective range. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm until the end of the 15th, falling off to quiet to unsettled levels for the 16th and 17th.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Dec 092
  Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec  090/090/095
  90 Day Mean        14 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  020/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Dec  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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