Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A new region was
numbered today as Region 522 (S16W50).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. The coronal hole high speed stream continued to keep
solar wind speeds averaging between 700-800 km/s with Bz
fluctuations between +/- 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for 14-15 Dec. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected on 16 Dec.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 088 Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 017/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 025/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 015/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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