Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. A new region was numbered today as Region 522 (S16W50).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm conditions. The coronal hole high speed stream continued to keep solar wind speeds averaging between 700-800 km/s with Bz fluctuations between +/- 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for 14-15 Dec. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 16 Dec.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Dec 088
  Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec  095/100/100
  90 Day Mean        13 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  017/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Dec  025/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  015/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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