Viewing archive of Friday, 12 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. There have been no significant events observed from the three numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm conditions. Solar wind speeds averaging above 700 km/s and low density around 1 p/cc reflect the continued effects of the coronal hole high-speed stream of the past several days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated periods of minor storming for 13-14 Dec. Predominately unsettled conditions with periods of active levels are expected for 15 Dec as the coronal hole high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Dec 087
  Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec  090/095/100
  90 Day Mean        12 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  027/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Dec  021/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  020/030-015/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%35%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/10/26Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:245
Current stretch spotless days:18

This day in history*

Solar flares
12003M9.6
22003M5.8
31999M3.2
42012M1.7
52012M1.6
ApG
12003150G4
2200225G2
3200724G1
4199424G1
5200420
*since 1994

Social networks