Viewing archive of Friday, 12 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. There have been no
significant events observed from the three numbered regions on the
visible solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. Solar wind speeds averaging above 700 km/s and low
density around 1 p/cc reflect the continued effects of the coronal
hole high-speed stream of the past several days. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated
periods of minor storming for 13-14 Dec. Predominately unsettled
conditions with periods of active levels are expected for 15 Dec as
the coronal hole high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 087 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 027/040 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 021/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 020/030-015/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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