Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Only B-class flares
have occurred. No significant development was observed from the
active regions on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm conditions.
Solar wind speed remains steady at around 800 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Activity in the geomagnetic
field should decrease over the next few days as the coronal hole
causing this elevated activity rotates out of geoeffective position.
Active to minor storm conditions are expected on 12-13 December,
with isolated major storming possible. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected on 14 December, with isolated minor storming
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 086 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 085/090/090 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 024/042 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 030/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 025/040-020/035-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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