Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Only B-class flares have occurred. No significant development was observed from the active regions on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm conditions. Solar wind speed remains steady at around 800 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Activity in the geomagnetic field should decrease over the next few days as the coronal hole causing this elevated activity rotates out of geoeffective position. Active to minor storm conditions are expected on 12-13 December, with isolated major storming possible. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 14 December, with isolated minor storming possible.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Dec 086
  Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  085/090/090
  90 Day Mean        11 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  024/042
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Dec  030/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  025/040-020/035-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%40%
Minor storm40%40%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%50%
Minor storm45%40%30%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

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