Viewing archive of Monday, 8 December 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flare activity occurred as the disk is dominated by a large coronal hole.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to major storm levels. The high speed solar wind, emanating from the mid-disk coronal hole, increased in radial speed around 0600 UTC. The current radial speed is near 650 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three days. High speed solar wind should buffet the magnetosphere through December 11.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Dec 094
  Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec  095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        08 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  007/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Dec  025/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  025/035-030/035-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%35%
Minor storm35%40%35%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%40%
Minor storm50%55%50%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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