Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Very few flares occurred, the
largest being a C3 at 0254 UTC. Just three simple spotted regions
are visible. Today's 10 cm flux (92) is the lowest since 07
November.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A small transient in the
solar wind passed ACE at 1340 UTC, having a short-lived increase in
radial speed plus a more prolonged strengthening of the total field.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
again high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be increasingly more disturbed through the period. A
high speed solar wind stream is anticipated to bring active to minor
storm conditions, beginning near midday on 09 December.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 092 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 014/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 015/015-025/020-030/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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