Viewing archive of Friday, 5 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Activity consisted
of minor C-class flares, the largest a C2 flare at 1019Z from Region
513 (N12W47). Region 517 (S06E07) is in a gradual decay phase,
decreasing slightly in area size from yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. At
approximately 0200Z the total field measurement of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) increased to 20 nT. The Bz
component of the IMF, after an initial northward direction, turned
southward for nearly ten hours, then began a north-south
oscillation. This signature is similar to that of a co-rotating
interaction region preceding the onset of a high speed stream, but
may include transient effects from a faint halo CME that occurred on
02 December. The ten hour period of southward Bz, together with
solar wind speed near 475 km/s produced minor storm levels for most
of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Isolated periods
of minor storm levels are possible on 06-07 December. By 08
December, activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 112 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 030/042 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 025/035-020/035-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
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