Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A minor C2 flare was
observed at 03/0108Z from Region 510 (S24W69). Region 517 (S06E20)
remains the largest spot group on the visible disk but is relatively
unchanged from yesterday. New Region 519 (S08W15) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 517 and 510 have the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began on 02 December has ended. The proton event
began at 02/1505Z, reached a peak flux of 88.9 pfu at 02/1820Z, and
ended at 04/0000Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed
stream effects may produce active conditions on 06 - 07 December.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 116 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 015/020-020/035-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
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