Viewing archive of Friday, 28 November 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Flare production was limited to C-class activity throughout the period. Region 508 (S19W44) produced the largest flare of the day, a C3 x-ray flare that occurred at 28/0913Z. This region underwent a slight growth in magnetic complexity and areal coverage in the spot group over the past 24 hours. Region 507 (N07W56) produced a single event, a C1 x-ray flare that occurred at 28/0555Z. No significant changes were observed in this group during the period. Region 510 (S23E11) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 27/2210Z. This region has nearly doubled in penumbral coverage since yesterday while the magnetic field appears to remain a simply structured complex. Regions 515 (S02E68) and 516 (S17E70) were newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible throughout the period, mainly at higher latitudes. A transequatorial coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective by 30 Nov, enhancing the potential for isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Nov 168
  Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec  170/165/150
  90 Day Mean        28 Nov 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  003/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  004/015-008/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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