Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 508 (S19W31) has
produced the most activity, including the largest flare of the
period, a C9.6/Sf at 27/0820 UTC. No regions exhibited significant
development. Region 507 (N07W43) continues a slow decay and is now
in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 514 (S16W46) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class flares remain possible from Region 507 and
Region 508.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind speed continues in
gradual decline. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated periods of active
conditions in higher latitudes on 29-30 November.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 175 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 170/160/150 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 004/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 008/010-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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