Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 November 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares were observed in Region 508 (S18W18). This region continues to exhibit some complexity while undergoing slow decay. Region 501 (N04, L=004) has quietly rotated around the west limb. Region 507 (N08W30) maintains considerable size and still appears to contain a weak delta configuration; however, activity in this region remains very low. New Region 513 (N09E71) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Though diminished greatly in size and complexity, Region 508 still maintains potential for an isolated M-class event. An M-class flare is also possible from Region 507.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated, but is in gradual decline. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Nov 171
  Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov  170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        26 Nov 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Nov  007/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  008/010-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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