Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class activity
was observed in Regions 508 (S16W06) and 510 (S22E50). Region 508
continues to slowly decay, but still maintains moderate complexity.
Region 501 (N04W85), which produced several M-class flares early in
its rotation across the visible disk, is making a quiet exit around
the west limb. Region 507 (N09W14) maintains considerable size and
complexity, but was quiet again this period. A weak delta
configuration is still evident in this region. New Regions 511
(S14E24) and 512 (N06E31) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 507 and 508, though relatively quiet over the
past several days, still maintain potential for isolated M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. The disturbed periods are due to a moderate high speed
solar wind stream from a well positioned coronal hole. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes. The most disturbed periods are expected on 26
November due to high speed coronal hole flow. Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 27 and 28 November, with
occasional high latitude active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 171 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 170/160/160 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 007/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 015/020-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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