Viewing archive of Monday, 24 November 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several low C-class flares were observed throughout the period. Region 501 (N03W72) is undergoing considerable decay as it approaches the west limb, but is still producing isolated C-class flares. Region 508 (S17E08) was responsible for most of the low C-class activity. No significant change was noted in this moderately complex region over the last 24 hours. It maintains a beta-gamma configuration in approximately 450 millionths of white light areal coverage. Region 507 (N09W03) is the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, but was rather quiet this period. A weak delta configuration is apparent in this spot group with over 700 millionths of areal coverage. New Regions 509 (S10E56) and 510 (S22E62) were numbered today. Region 509 produced a C2/Sf flare at 24/1854Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. An isolated M-class flare is possible, primarily from Regions 501, 507, and 508.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods in the higher latitudes. A well positioned coronal hole is producing solar wind speeds near 600 km/s, creating a weak disturbance in the geomagnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels through 26 November. Isolated minor storm levels are also expected, but will be confined mostly to higher latitudes. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 27 November as the current disturbance subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
Class M40%40%30%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Nov 177
  Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov  175/170/160
  90 Day Mean        24 Nov 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  013/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Nov  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  015/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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