Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Regions 501 (N03W44), 507
(N09E22), and 508 (S17E34) all produced C-class flares during the
period. No significant development was observed in any active
region on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 501, 507, and 508 may produce isolated major
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit continues at enhanced levels
just below the 10 pfu threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions on 23 November due to the effects of high speed solar
wind streams associated with a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 176 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 180/190/190 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 018/039 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 010/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 020/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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