Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 November 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Regions 501 (N03W44), 507 (N09E22), and 508 (S17E34) all produced C-class flares during the period. No significant development was observed in any active region on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 501, 507, and 508 may produce isolated major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit continues at enhanced levels just below the 10 pfu threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm conditions on 23 November due to the effects of high speed solar wind streams associated with a coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Nov 176
  Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov  180/190/190
  90 Day Mean        22 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  018/039
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Nov  010/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  020/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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