Viewing archive of Friday, 21 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Regions 507 (N09E36) and
508 (S18E47) produced several C-class flares, and Region 501
(N04W32) produced an M5.8/2b at 20/2354 UTC. A CME was observed on
LASCO associated with the M5 flare, although it was not directed at
the earth. No significant developments were observed with any
active region on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 501, 507, and 508 are capable of
producing major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at major storm levels due to
the remaining effects of a CME arrival early on 20 November.
Activity diminished to unsettled levels by the end of the period.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit climbed
steadily during the period, and ended the period near the 10 pfu
threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Isolated minor
storm conditions on 22 November may be caused by a CME shock arrival
originating from the M9 flare observed on 20 November. Isolated
minor storm conditions are also possible on 23 November due to the
effects of high speed solar wind streams associated with a coronal
hole moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 177 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 180/190/200 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 067/117 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 035/045 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 025/035-015/025-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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