Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 November 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 501 (N02W18) produced an M9.6/2b flare at 20/0747 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep and a 9700 pfu tenflare. This flare also produced a CME with an estimated velocity of 700 km/s. Region 507 (N07E49) produced a C8.6 at 20/1929 UTC. All regions on the disk were stable in size. Two regions increased in complexity: Region 501 developed into a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration, and Region 508 (S20E58) developed into a Beta-Gamma configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 501, 507 and 508 are capable of producing major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels. A CME shock arrived at SOHO/MTOF and was observed at 20/0740 UTC, and a geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at 0805 UTC. A very strong (55 nT) southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field resulted in severe geomagnetic storming during the latter half of the day. Magnetopause crossings were observed at both main GOES satellites, at 1301 UTC for GOES 12 and at 1628 UTC for GOES 10. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit dropped below high levels early in the day and have remained below threshold. The M9 flare produced elevated 10 MeV proton levels at geosynchronous orbit, but this activity did not cross event thresholds.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active all three days, with major storm conditions possible early on 21 November from the lingering effects of the geomagnetic storm in progress. Minor storming is possible on 22-23 November from a CME shock arrival originating from the M9 flare observed earlier today.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
Class M 70%75%80%
Class X 15%20%25%
Proton10%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Nov 175
  Predicted    21 Nov-23 Nov  180/190/200
  90 Day Mean        20 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  105/115
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  040/045-025/035-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm 35%25%15%
Major-severe storm 20%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%40%
Minor storm 35%40%35%
Major-severe storm 30%25%15%

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