Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 November 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels again today. Region 501 (N03E09) produced several M-class flares today. A pair of M3/2n flares were the most notable, peak fluxes were at 18/0752Z and 18/0831Z. A filament channel to the south and west of this region erupted following the first flare. Strong radio bursts, a Tenflare, a Type IV, and two separate occurrences of Type II radio sweeps were also associated with this period of activity. LASCO imagery depicted a full halo CME as a result of the complex series of events that appears to have a fairly well connected Earth bound component to the plasma cloud. This region has shown some growth over the past 24 hours and has emerged into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex. The largest flare of the period was an M4 that occurred beyond the east limb at 18/1011Z and is thought to be from old Region 486 which should start to become visible on day one of the period. Region 507 (N10E78) was newly numbered today and is believed to be old Region 488. Region 506 (S23E72) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 501 and 507 are both capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range between predominantly active to minor storm levels through much of the period. Minor storm conditions are expected around the middle of day one due to a glancing blow, from the partial halo CME that occurred as a result of the M4 flare that was recorded at 0905Z on the 17 of Nov. Isolated major to severe storm conditions are expected beginning around the middle of day two due to a second transient that is expected as the result of the complex M-class activity emanating a full halo CME today. Day three should see a return to predominantly active conditions with isolated minor storm possible at this time.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
Class M70%80%80%
Class X15%30%30%
Proton10%15%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Nov 144
  Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov  160/190/220
  90 Day Mean        18 Nov 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  021/034
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Nov  018/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  025/040-040/050-030/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%55%
Minor storm20%35%25%
Major-severe storm15%25%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%40%
Minor storm40%50%35%
Major-severe storm25%30%20%

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