Viewing archive of Monday, 17 November 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 501 (N04E22) has generated two M-class flares, an M1 x-ray event at 17/0134Z, and an M4/1n event at 17/0905Z. The second event was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep and a coronal mass ejection measured form the LASCO coronagraph with an estimated speed of 1085 km/s. This region underwent little change over the period and retains a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 505 (S22E58) was newly numbered to day.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. Region 501 will continue to harbor a threat for M-class activity. Old active Regions 486 and 488 will be returning late in the period, and pose an increased threat for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. The favorably positioned coronal hole continued to cause high solar wind speeds, and the accompanying southward Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field, have kept the geomagnetic field activity at elevated levels throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels for the next two days. The coronal hole will pass from geoeffective position, and the solar wind speeds should subside. On day three (possibly late on day two) a glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that occurred on 17 Nov at 0917Z is anticipated, elevating activity to periods of minor storm levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
Class M 50%55%55%
Class X 05%10%10%
Proton05%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Nov 121
  Predicted    18 Nov-20 Nov  135/155/165
  90 Day Mean        17 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  032/035
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  028/037
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  012/020-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm 10%10%20%
Major-severe storm 05%05%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%45%
Minor storm 40%20%30%
Major-severe storm 20%05%10%

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