Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours
due to two M-class flares, both from newly assigned Region 501
(N05E65), which is the return of old Region 484. The first was an
impulsive M1.6 at 0501 UTC. The second was a long duration M1.4 with
maximum at 0929 UTC. The M1.4 was associated with a fast CME (about
1100 km/s) that appeared to erupt off east limb. Limited
observations hindered analysis of the region, but it appears to have
sunspot area of at least 340 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days, with Region 501 the most likely
source for activity. There is a slight chance for major flare
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels,
with a period of major storm levels at high latitudes. Solar wind
signatures continue to show high speed, low density, high
temperature, with fairly regular oscillations of the z-component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz), all of which strongly
suggest the enhanced geomagnetic activity is being driven by a
high-speed coronal hole solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods for
14-15 November as the current disturbance persists. There should be
a slight decline to mostly active on 16 November.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 102 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 105/110/115 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 020/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 025/030-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
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