Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest x-ray flare of the
past day was a C3 at 12/1819 UTC. Although no optical flare reports
were received, satellite observations suggest that this activity
occurred in Region 498 (S02W80).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The most likely source of an M-flare is at the east
limb near the returning location of old active Region 484 (N03,
L=355).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels. The
coronal hole high-speed stream continues.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods in
response to a coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 099 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 115/130/145 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 039/051 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 025/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 025/025-025/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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