Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 498 (S04W67)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/1351 UTC. A slow rise and fall x-ray
flare began at about 11/1523 UTC and reached a maximum of C8 at
11/1615 UTC. This activity appears to have originated from just
behind the east limb near the expected location of old active Region
484 (N03, L=355).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares possible in Region 498 or at the east
limb near old Region 484 (N03, L=355).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels. A
single K=7 period was observed at Boulder from 11/0300-0600 UTC.
Solar wind conditions of high speed (700-800 km/s) and low density
(about 2 p/cc) suggest that the expected coronal hole high-speed
stream has arrived.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods.
The coronal hole related disturbance is expected to persist for the
duration of the three-day forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 096 Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 100/115/130 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 015/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 030/050 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 025/025-025/030-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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