Viewing archive of Monday, 10 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 500 (S09W36) produced
the first C-class flare observed in the past four days, a C1/Sf at
10/2014 UTC. This region, as well as the other two spotted sunspot
groups on the visible disk, remain relatively small and simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional small C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
The most disturbed periods were from 10/0900-1500 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with isolated minor storm periods. A
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to influence activity
levels for the next few days.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 095 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 095/100/115 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 020/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 020/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 020/030-020/025-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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