Viewing archive of Friday, 7 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. A long duration
X-ray enhancement was observed at 0318Z reaching the B8 level. Two
CME's were observed in LASCO imagery and determined to be back
sided. The visible disk is almost spotless with Region 495 (S18W89)
the only spot group observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Continued low level X-ray enhancements are possible due
to back side activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began at 02/1105Z and reached a peak
value of 1570 pfu on 03/0815Z, ended today at 07/1230Z. A small
enhancement of greater than 10 MeV proton flux was observed at
around 07/1730Z but is currently below threshold. The source of
this enhancement is likely activity from the backside.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storms
levels possible. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 08-09
November. A returning coronal hole is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position on 10 November with active to isolated minor
storm levels possible.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 091 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 006/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 008/015-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
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