Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 November 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. After nearly three weeks of intense solar activity, the visible surface of the sun is almost spotless. Region 495 (S21W76) is the only spot group visible and has exhibited little change from yesterday. A long duration B5 X-ray enhancement was observed at 06/1831Z and EIT imagery suggests a source from beyond the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The shock from the X28 flare on 04 November reached Earth at 06/1937Z. A 31nT sudden impulse was observed on the Boulder magnetometer and activity reached minor storm levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field, as measured by the NASA/ACE spacecraft initially turned south to -7 nT and total field measurement reached 15 nT. A greater than 10 MeV proton event continues with current flux levels at 18 pfu and slowly decreasing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm levels possible. Active levels with isolated minor storm levels are expected on day one. By day two and three activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on day one.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
Class M10%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton50%10%05%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Nov 098
  Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        06 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  004/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  020/020-010/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%25%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%25%25%
Minor storm35%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

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