Viewing archive of Monday, 3 November 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels. Two X-class events made way for yet another day of impressive major flare activity. Region 488 (N08W82) produced an X3/2f flare at 03/0955Z and an X2/2b event at 03/0130Z. Both flares had associated Tenflares, Type II and IV radio sweeps, and CME's. The associated CME with the X3 event didn't appear to be Earth directed, though the X2 event may become slightly geoeffective. This Region has shown some decay over the period although it remains a very magnetically complex region with delta structures still evident throughout the spot cluster. Region 486 (S17W75) was limited in flare production today. The largest flare from this region was an M3/sf that occurred at 03/1532Z. This region continues to exhibit a very complex magnetic field and continues to depict a beta-gamma-delta magnetic class structure. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels through day one. Regions 486 and 488 are due to exit the disk beginning on day two which should significantly drop flare activity by day three of the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 02/1105Z has thus far had a maximum of 1570 pfu, which occurred at 03/0815Z and has recently been ranging between 400 and 800 pfu's at the time of this writing. The greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 02/1740Z, reached a maximum of 49 pfu at 02/1905Z, and ended at 03/1720Z. The polar cap absorption event remains in progress. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to severe storm levels through day one of the period. A full halo CME resulting from the X8/2b event from yesterday is expected to arrive early in the period on day one. Additional data from SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates that there was significant deceleration of the CME. Predominantly active conditions are expected on day two with isolated minor storm levels expected. Day three should see a return to unsettled to active levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event should drop below alert levels by day two.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
Class M90%90%70%
Class X75%75%50%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Nov 167
  Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  145/130/120
  90 Day Mean        03 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  080/090-025/035-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm40%35%15%
Major-severe storm35%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm50%45%20%
Major-severe storm40%20%15%

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