Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 November 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 486 (S17W62) continues to exhibit its very impressive characteristics by producing another in a series of major events as it unleashed an X8/2b flare at 02/1725Z. A Tenflare, Type II (with an estimated shock velocity of 1691 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, along with strong radio bursts at all frequencies were associated in this event. Initial SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates another in the sequence of Earth bound full halo CME's that this region has produced. An M3 x-ray flare also occurred in this region during the period which produced an associated Type II radio sweep with a estimated shock velocity of 1079 km/s and a west limb CME. Consensus indicates that this region underwent a resurgence in penumbral coverage with 2160 millionths of areal coverage. Several complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structures remain evident in this group. Region 488 (N08W68) produced minor C-class flare activity today and has undergone little change during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated minor storm conditions were likely due to the continued elevated solar winds speeds and the occasional southward Bz in the interplanetary magnetic field. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes reached alert levels at 02/1105Z and was initially believed to have been from the M3 event earlier in the period (early maximum was 30 pfu). Since the X8 event they have seen a maximum of 797 at 02/2130Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton fluxes have also reached alert levels due to the X8 event; at 1740 (15 minutes from flare maximum) they pushed through event threshold and have since seen a maximum of 49 pfu. A polar cap absorption event is in progress.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels beginning on day one near the middle of the day and continuing through day two due to the full halo CME that resulted from the X8 flare today. Day three may see a return to unsettled to active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
Class M90%90%70%
Class X75%75%50%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Nov 190
  Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov  180/170/150
  90 Day Mean        02 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  016/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Nov  015/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  080/120-130/160-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm30%55%15%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm40%20%30%
Major-severe storm40%70%20%

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