Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 November 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region 488 (N08W55) produced two M-class flares during the period; an M1 x-ray flare at 01/0852Z and a second M1 x-ray flare at 01/1751Z. Due to insufficient data from LASCO imagery it is unknown if there is any associated CME activity. This region has changed little during the period and continues to depict a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. White light areal coverage is at 1610 millionths. Region 486 (S17W49) continues to be considerable in size and complexity although it only managed to produced lesser C-class flare activity during the period. Slight, yet continued decay was observed over the past 24 hours of penumbral coverage in white light analysis. This region is still very impressive and continues to exhibit a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Much of the remainder of the disk and limb were relatively quiescent today. No new regions were numbered today
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 486 and 488 are both capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind speeds have gradually decreased from the start of the period, approximately 850 km/s to 600 km/s (at the time of this writing) while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained consistently northward during the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit that had two distinct maximum measurements (29,000 pfu at 29/0615Z; from the X17 flare and 3,300 pfu at 30/1935Z; from the X10 flare) resulting from subsequent days major flare activity has ended at 01/1310Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible on day one due to the elevated solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated and could again reach alert threshold with continued major flare activity.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
Class M70%70%60%
Class X35%30%25%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Nov 210
  Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov  200/190/175
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  073/093
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  010/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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