Viewing archive of Friday, 31 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 488 (N08W42) produced an M1/Sf at 31/0616Z and occasional C-class flares throughout the period. This region maintains considerable size and complexity, but has yet to produce a major flare. An M2 flare was observed at 31/0433Z. Space-based imagery indicates that the source was likely behind the west limb (probably old Region 484 at N03, L=355). Huge Region 486 (S17W36) is finally showing some signs of decay. Activity this period was limited to occasional C-class flares. Despite its relative calm, this region still maintains a very complex magnetic structure in over 2000 millionths of white light areal coverage. New Region 496 (S12E09) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Though some decay was noted in Region 486, it still maintains potential for a major solar flare. Region 488 also contains potential for a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels. The intense geomagnetic storm that began at around 30/1600Z, continued well into this period. Severe storm levels persisted from 30/2100Z through 31/0900Z. Mostly active to major storm periods occurred through the latter half of the period. Solar radiation contamination on the ACE SWEPAM instrument finally ended at 31/0052Z. Solar wind speed was at an exceptionally high 1200 km/s, but has been in a gradual decline, ending the period at over 800 km/s. The prolonged periods of southward IMF Bz that occurred early in the period have ended. Bz has been mostly northward since 31/0200Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event in progress since 28/1145Z, ended at 31/0145Z. This prolonged high energy proton event was actually two distinct events associated with the X17 and X10 flares on the 28th and 29th respectively. The peak measurements for both events were 186 pfu at 29/0015Z and 110 pfu at 29/2310Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress, but is quickly declining to the 10 pfu alert threshold. The two peak measurements at 10 MeV were 29,000 pfu at 29/0615Z and 3300 pfu at 30/1935Z. The PCA event has ended.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through 1 November. Isolated major storm periods are possible at higher latitudes due to the very elevated solar wind speeds. The 2nd and 3rd of November should see a return to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on the 28th is expected to end on 1 November.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
Class M 75%70%60%
Class X 40%35%30%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Oct 249
  Predicted    01 Nov-03 Nov  240/230/220
  90 Day Mean        31 Oct 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  144/162
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  075/110
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  025/040-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 20%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 30%15%15%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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