Viewing archive of Monday, 27 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 484 (N03W54) produced three M-class flares, including an M7.6/2n at 26/2140 UTC, and an M2.7/2f at 27/0833 UTC that produced a CME observed on LASCO imagery. Region 486 (S16E18) produced two major flares, an M5.0/Sf at 27/0927 UTC and an M6.7/Sf at 27/1243 UTC. Regions 484 and 486 are stable in size and magnetic complexity. Five new regions were numbered today: Region 488 (N09E09), Region 489 (S11E05), Region 490 (S10E25), Region 491 (S06E09), Region 492 (S22W20). Region 488 is noteworthy for its rapid growth during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high. Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce M-class and X-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active. Two partial halo CME events associated with X-class flares on 26 October may cause geomagnetic storming on days one and two.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
Class M 90%90%90%
Class X 50%50%50%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Oct 257
  Predicted    28 Oct-30 Oct  250/250/250
  90 Day Mean        27 Oct 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  005/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Oct  015/016
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm 25%25%15%
Major-severe storm 15%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 35%35%25%
Major-severe storm 25%25%15%

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