Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 484 (N04W28)
produced three M-class flares, the strongest being a M1.7/Sf at
25/0553 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep. At 24/0446 UTC,
Region 486 produced an M1.2/2n with an associated CME with a speed
of approximately 585 km/s. This CME did not appear to be
earth-directed. Both regions maintained their magnetic complexity
and grew slightly in size. Region 486 is now observed at 2200 mils.
A 10-degree filament erupted at S24W41 sometime between 24/2342 and
25/1417 UTC. New Region 487 at N13E72 was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce
M-class and isolated X-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Residual effects
from yesterday's transient arrival continue to cause occasional
active conditions. Solar wind speed has decreased steadily to about
500 km/s, and Bz continues to maintain a consistent northward
orientation.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active throughout the period, with isolated
minor storm conditions possible on day one.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 222 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 210/210/200 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 028/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
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