Viewing archive of Friday, 24 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 486 (S16E57)
produced several flares, including a M7.6/1n at 24/0254 UTC, with an
associated Type IV radio sweep. An associated CME was observed on
SOHO/LASCO imagery with an estimated velocity of 900 km/s, although
the CME did not appear to be earth-directed. Region 484 (N05W15)
produced an M1.3 at 24/1856 UTC. Region 484 appears to be decaying
slightly, while Region 486 is growing. Both regions continue to
exhibit large, complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configurations.
The F10 value is flare enhanced and is estimated due to solar
activity at the time of the measurement.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high.
Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels. An
interplanetary shock was observed at ACE at 24/1450 UTC, with a
subsequent sudden impulse observed at 1530 UTC. The sudden impulse
was followed by about two hours of severe geomagnetic storm
activity, and produced a magnetopause crossing at GOES 12. Solar
wind data show high density flow with strong magnetic fields (about
30 nT), although so far Bz has been strongly northwards. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to severe storm conditions for day one, due
to persistence from the current transient-driven activity. Activity
should subside to unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and
three.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Class X | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Proton | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 191 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 190/195/200 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 035/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 035/040-030/040-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
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