Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels again today. Region 486 (S16E70) produced a major flare at 23/0835 UTC; it was an X5/1b event, with an associated Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 967 km/s. An associated CME was also seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery. A second major flare from this region occurred at 23/2004 UTC, which was an impulsive X1/1n flare. This region is just rotating into view on the southeast limb, and is obviously a very large group, with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 484 (N04W00) was fairly active producing several M-class flares today. The largest was an M3/1n event that occurred at 23/0708 UTC. This region continues to depict a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered today. The F10 value is estimated and is based on the Penticton morning reading due to a flare enhancement during the reading of the noon value.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both very capable of producing major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from active to major storm levels for the forecast period. These elevated conditions are expected as a result of the partial halo CME on 22/0754 UTC and from the X5/1b flare at 23/0835 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
Class M90%90%90%
Class X50%50%50%
Proton25%30%35%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Oct 183
  Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct  190/195/195
  90 Day Mean        23 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  020/033
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  040/050-040/050-030/050
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%40%
Minor storm40%40%30%
Major-severe storm30%30%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm40%40%40%
Major-severe storm40%40%40%

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