Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. There has been a steady series of C-class flares and a single M1.0 at 21/0827 UTC. Region 484 (N05E26) continues to grow, but at a lesser rate than yesterday. The region is now 1650 millionths with at least a 50% increase in magnetic intensity. A region just beyond the East limb, generated a strong CME at approximately 21/0300 UTC, but does not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain moderate. Region 484, and the new Region approaching the East limb, are a combined threat to continue to generate C-class activity, with an occasional M-class flare. There is a slight chance for an isolated X-class event, and an even lesser chance for a proton-producing flare. By day three, Region 484 will near central meridian, and become a slightly higher threat for producing a flare event which could generate protons at near-Earth.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A favorably positioned coronal hole is supporting a high-speed solar wind stream, which is in turn supporting elevated magnetic activity at Earth. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three days. The coronal hole will proceed out of geoeffective range around the second day, but a faint shock associated with a CME which occurred on the 19th should lightly impact Earth, once again elevating magnetic activity on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Oct 152
  Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  150/155/160
  90 Day Mean        21 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  020/030
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  028/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  020/025-020/020-025/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm30%30%35%
Major-severe storm10%10%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm35%30%35%
Major-severe storm15%10%15%

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