Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 484 (N06E54) produced an X1/1n flare starting at 1629 UTC, with maximum at 1650 UTC and ending at 1704 UTC. The flare was accompanied by strong radio bursts, a type II radio sweep, and was associated with a coronal mass ejection. The CME was observed in LASCO-C2 off the northeast limb beginning at 1708 UTC with a plane-of-sky speed of about 500 km/s. Region 484 also produced two M1 flares: one at 0626 UTC, the other at 1926 UTC. The region also produced a C6/1f at 18/2218 UTC that was associated with a CME off the southeast limb around 18/2230 UTC. Neither of these CMEs appear to have any earthward directed component. Region 484 grew dramatically during the past 24 hours from 240 millionths at the start of the day to just over 1000 millionths by forecast issue time. This remarkable emergence of new flux led to the formation of a strong delta configuration across a northeast-to-southwest polarity inversion line which was also the location of the most intense emission from the X1 flare event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly moderate for the next three days, with Region 484 as the dominant source of activity. There is a chance for more major flare activity from Region 484, especially if it continues to grow.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. A jump in solar wind velocity from 540 km/s to 600 km/s was observed around 2200 UTC. However, the solar wind signatures continue to be consistent with a high-speed coronal driven wind stream. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field continues to oscillate around an average value of about -5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to be at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, increasing to mostly active with minor storm periods on the second day, and returning back to unsettled to active for the third day. The increase on day two is expected as a response to the particular morphology of a coronal hole rotating across the western part of the solar disk. A glancing blow from the partial-halo CME of 18/1554 UTC may also contribute to activity on day two.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Oct 120
  Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct  125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        19 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  015/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Oct  015/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  012/020-020/030-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%20%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%40%35%
Major-severe storm15%25%15%

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