Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 October 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A noticeable increase in flare activity and background levels was observed during the past 24 hours. Most of this increase was due to newly numbered Region 484 (N05E68) which appears to be a compact D-type group with 240 millionths of area. The region produced numerous C-class flares: the largest was a C4.9 at 1653 UTC. A partial halo CME was observed off the southeast limb, beginning at 1554 UTC. The plane of sky velocity was estimated to be about 700 km/s. Region 483 (S08E55) was assigned today but so far is a small stable sunspot group. The other active regions on the disk showed occasional brightenings but were mostly quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days with Region 484 as the dominant source of activity. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels as the high speed solar wind stream continues. The solar wind speed did not show any trend today and the average velocity was around 540 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field Z-component fluctuated between -7 nT and + 5 nT but was weakly negative on average. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. There should be a gradual decline in activity sometime tomorrow and conditions should be mostly unsettled for the second day. An increase to mostly active with some minor storm periods is expected on the third day as a new coronal hole rotates into favorable position at that time. Today's CME is not expected to directly impact Earth but might result in a glancing blow that could provide a boost to activity on the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Oct 109
  Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  115/115/120
  90 Day Mean        18 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  020/031
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  017/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  012/020-012/015-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm25%25%40%
Major-severe storm05%05%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm05%05%35%

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