Viewing archive of Friday, 17 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's largest flares
were a B9 at 0701 UTC from newly numbered Region 482 (N16E62), and a
long-duration B8 at 0932 UTC from behind east limb at about N03.
Newly numbered Region 481 (S08W17) emerged on the disk today. Solar
imagery suggests that there are additional active regions close to
east limb which will be rotating into view soon.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare
sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
earth continues to be under the influence of a high-speed solar wind
stream. The stream continues to decline slowly as the initial speeds
around 560 km/s decreased down to about 520 km/s by the end of the
period. The interplanetary magnetic field showed regular oscillations
and had a weakly negative Bz component on average during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. Unsettled
levels are expected to prevail for the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 099 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 016/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 015/020-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
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