Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's flare activity consisted of a few B-class events. There are currently only two, small sunspot groups on the solar disk. Some minor surging and brightenings were observed on East limb at about N18.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind data show the continuation of a high speed stream associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole. There was a gradual decreasing tendency in the velocities today, with initial values around 620 km/s decreasing to around 560 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the high speed solar wind stream continues. A slight decline to unsettled to active is expected on day two, and predominantly unsettled levels are expected on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Oct 095
  Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        16 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  022/042
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  025/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm35%30%25%
Major-severe storm25%20%10%

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